TD Bank (TSE:TD) has experienced a recent surge in its stock price, prompting investors to assess whether it presents a compelling opportunity for investment in Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) or Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs). Here's a comprehensive analysis of TD stock and whether it's still a good buy: 

TD Stock Performance 

Despite a 10% gain in recent weeks, TD stock remains more than 20% below its 2022 peak. Currently trading around $84, the stock had reached $108 early last year before sliding, primarily due to rising interest rates in Canada and the United States. Concerns about aggressive rate hikes by central banks have weighed on bank stocks, including TD, a prominent player among TSX banking shares, as they could lead to a deep recession if not managed effectively. 

Economic Outlook and TD's Position 

Economists anticipate a short and mild recession, prompting bargain hunters to bet on TD's share price surge, speculating that rates have peaked and might decline in 2024. However, TD had to revise its revenue and earnings growth guidance after abandoning a planned acquisition of First Horizon. The decision was met with relief by investors, considering the decline in First Horizon's stock price post-announcement. Now, TD plans to focus on organic growth in its American business, utilizing its excess cash reserves to navigate challenging times or pursue alternative acquisitions. 

TD's Financial Performance and Dividend 

Despite challenges, TD remains a profitable bank, reporting $3.7 billion in adjusted net income for fiscal Q3 2023. Additionally, its history of dividend growth, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 10% since the mid-1990s, makes its payout attractive to investors, currently offering an annualized yield of approximately 4.6%. 

Investment Considerations 

While TD stock may not be a screaming buy at its current multiple of 10.9 times trailing 12-month earnings, historical trends suggest that buying on significant pullbacks has been a prudent strategy. Existing investors may consider maintaining their positions, while those adopting a buy-and-hold approach could start accumulating TD stock gradually, capitalizing on any further downside. However, uncertainty remains until clarity emerges on rate reduction decisions by central banks. 

Conclusion 

In conclusion, TD Bank presents an intriguing investment opportunity, considering its recent stock price movements and the broader economic landscape. While risks persist amid ongoing volatility and economic uncertainties, TD's strong financial position, historical performance, and dividend track record make it a compelling option for long-term investors. However, cautious optimism and strategic accumulation strategies are advisable given the potential for further market fluctuations.